REGIONAL CONFERENCE

“EU ENLARGEMENT AT A CROSSROADS”

Skopje, June 2019

Background

The European perspective of the Western Balkans (WB) has been the key driving, transformational force in the WB region, helping to achieve overall political and economic reforms and improve democratic processes. The new EU Enlargement Strategy (adopted on 6 February 2018) has repeatedly underlined that the EU accession process is a historic window of opportunity for the WB countries, whereas the accession process is and will remain a merit-based process, fully dependent on the objective progress achieved by each country.

In order to further strengthen the EU accession perspective and support the transformation process, the European Commission (EC) has introduced Six flagship initiatives, which are annexed to the Strategy, targeting specific areas of common interest: rule of law, security and migration, socio-economic development, transport and energy connectivity, digital agenda and good neighbourly relations.

Current State of Play in the EU Accession Process

Montenegro, as the most advanced in this process, started its accession negotiations on 29 June 2012. For almost seven years, 29 chapters have been opened with only 3 provisionally closed (Science and research, Education and culture and External relations). Chapters 34 (Institutions) and 35 (Other issues) are currently not applicable for Montenegro. The only remaining Chapter to be opened is Chapter 8 -Competition Policy.

Serbia started the accession negotiations on 21 January 2014. Only 14 out of 35 chapters have been opened so far, with two (Science and Research and Education and Culture) provisionally closed.

North Macedonia has been a candidate country since 2005. From October 2009 until 2015, the EC repeatedly recommended opening of the accession negotiations. In 2015, the recommendation was made conditional, depending on continued implementation of the Pržino Agreement and on achieving substantial progress in the implementation of the Urgent Reform Priorities. In April 2018, the EC delivered a “clear” recommendation for opening of accession negotiations. However, in June 2018, the Council did not follow suit and set out the path towards opening accession negotiations in June 2019.

Albania was granted candidate country status in June 2014. In April 2018, the EC recommended the opening of accession negotiations, while in June 2018, the Council set out the path towards opening accession negotiations in June 2019.

Bosnia and Herzegovina – The Stabilization and Association Agreement entered into force on 1 June 2015. Bosnia and Herzegovina submitted its EU membership application on 15 February 2016. In September 2016, the EU Council invited the Commission to present an opinion on the membership application of Bosnia and Herzegovina. It is expected that the EC will present its opinion on 29 May 2019.

Kosovo – The Stabilization and Association Agreement between the EU and Kosovo entered into force on 1 April 2016. In May 2016, the EC proposed visa-free travel for Kosovo. In July 2018, the EC confirmed that Kosovo had fulfilled all required benchmarks for visa liberalization with the EU. On 21 March 2019, the EP confirmed the visa free travel for citizens of Kosovo.

In addition, the following considerations should be taken into account:

- Both, Montenegro and Serbia have opened only 2 negotiating chapters each, in the course of 2018;

- Despite the conclusion of the Prespa Agreement and the achieved progress in pursuing the reform agenda, in June 2018, the EU Council decided to postpone the decision on the opening of accession negotiations with North Macedonia for June 2019. This decision has certainly influenced the outcome of the name issue referendum.

- While praising the progress made by Albania, especially in the judicial reform, the EU Council, as in the case of North Macedonia, decided to postpone the decision on the opening of accession negotiations for June 2019.

- Despite the clear confirmation by the EC that Kosovo had fulfilled all required benchmarks, the decision on granting visa free travel has not been made by the Council of the EU (interior ministers) so far.

- June 2019 will be a month of either a major breakthrough in the enlargement process with Albania and North Macedonia receiving a well-deserved date for start of accession negotiations and Bosnia and Herzegovina getting an encouraging opinion on its membership application, or will be a month of yet another disappointment that could be detrimental in the present geo-political context.

- Merit-based enlargement is irreplaceable, as is the EU membership perspective that has been a key driving force of sweeping changes that have taken place in the Region thus far.

Both the EU and the Western Balkans should make an extra effort to prevent marching populism across Europe from destroying WB’s membership perspective.

The Role of Berlin Process

Launched 6 years ago, the Berlin Process aimed to introduce a new dynamic in the regional cooperation, bringing the Western Balkans closer to the EU, aiming as well to better prepare WB countries for their future EU membership through intensified regional cooperation in several key areas: economic growth and connectivity, good neighbourly relations, civil society development and people-to-people connectivity. It is a matter of fact that it has had a positive influence on the regional cooperation, with a number of projects and initiatives commenced.

Enlargement sceptics say that it is nothing else but an alternative to the EU accession. Backers consider it as a supporting tool for EU membership. However, both sides agree that the level of tangible deliverables is at stake, whereas the implementation track record is disappointing. There is too much on paper, but too little implemented in practice.

Within the first few years, the most notable achievements were the establishment of the Regional Youth Cooperation Office (RYCO), the Western Balkans Investment Fund (WBIF), and the signing of the Declaration on Regional Cooperation and on the Resolution of Bilateral Disputes.

It seems that activities have been reinvigorated with the adoption of the EC supported Multi-annual Action Plan on Regional Economic Area in the Western Balkans Six. At the Berlin Process Summit held on 12 July 2017, in Trieste, the WB 6 Leaders endorsed MAP REA. The Regional Cooperation Council is in charge of coordinating the implementation. According to the RCC, 2019 should be a delivery year in the MAP REA implementation. The signing of the WB Regional Roaming Agreement during the second Digital Summit (4-5 April 2019, Belgrade) undoubtedly represents a major breakthrough in the implementation of MAP REA so far. Starting from July 2019, people and businesses in the Region will pay significantly lower roaming fees. The Agreement envisages RoamLike@Home in the Region by July 2021. The implementation of this Agreement also paves the way for reducing roaming charges with the EU, at a later stage.

This regional endeavour has also been recognised by citizens across the Region who, according to the RCC’s Balkan Barometer survey, overwhelmingly support regional cooperation as a prerequisite for the irreversible EU accession. Ever since 2015, when the Balkan Barometer was launched as a regional public opinion survey, the support for regional cooperation and EU integration has never fallen below 60% in the regional setting.

This enormous support and expectations have to be accompanied by strong commitments and relentless work by all relevant stakeholders. The role of the RCC should remain pivotal, backed by full support from the EU and governments across the Region.

Need for a Renewed Momentum/Reflection from the EU towards the WB

Renewed momentum in this context means not only renewed commitments, but rather concrete action. Governments in the Region do not have the luxury of time to postpone reforms, whereas EU Member States and the EU should not hide behind the necessity for internal reform before embarking upon enlargement. Enlargement can and should go hand in hand with the fight for stronger EU and against identity populism that is campaigning for new walls and divisions. These details only confirm the notion, which has been for some time now on the table, both in the Region and the EU. Instead of a win-win scenario, we are heading towards a no-win scenario. The current situation is unsustainable on the long run.

EU aspirants criticise that the credibility of the EU is at stake, whereas the EU does not stick to its own commitments and there are constant delays/excuses in moving the enlargement process forward, despite major efforts invested and good progress made in the implementation of the reform agenda. The sense of mistrust and disappointment is more and more gaining pace.

On the other hand, the EU argues that the comprehensive reforms in crucial areas are at stake and candidates for accession have achieved limited results in the reform agenda. The wording has changed as well: “aspirants could be potentially ready in a 2025 perspective”; “this perspective is extremely ambitious”; “there is a need for reflection time”; “we need to reform internally, to become stronger and more solid before getting bigger”; “no visa liberalization before 2020 ”, etc.

The European Parliament elections will take place between 23 and 26 May 2019. As unofficially announced, the EC will present the 2019 Annual Enlargement Package on 29 May, including individual progress reports. It is expected that the EC will recommend opening of accession negotiations with North Macedonia and Albania and will deliver (positive) opinion on the EU membership application of Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Therefore, the next sessions of the Foreign Affairs Council (17 June 2019) and the European Council (20-21 June 2019), will not be just “regular” sessions, taking into account the important decisions to be adopted regarding the EU accession process. Given the fact that in some member states the green light for opening accession negotiations is subject to confirmation/ratification by the Parliament, it is difficult to predict whether the entire procedure will be completed until the Council meetings. Even if this is the case, the consensus among Member States to move on with the enlargement agenda seems to be distant.

It is also worth mentioning, that some of the EU Member States, which are most reluctant when it comes to moving forward the EU accession process, are at the same time the most vocal opponents of the WB countries cooperating with China, Russia and Turkey. The others claim that the continuation of the accession process will further boost the far right forces in the EU, at the expense of democracy and liberal values.

In a nutshell, there are several important drivers, which will shape the future developments related to the enlargement process: the outcome of the EP elections, the composition of the new European Commission and the new Multi-annual Financial Framework 2021-2027.

Objectives of the Conference

Supporting the accession of the WB countries to the EU is one of the cornerstones of the Podgorica Club policy processes, aimed at defining a common “Western Balkans Vision 2030” and “New Narrative for Western Balkans”. Given the current state of play in the EU accession process and the still complex regional situation, the Conference has the following objectives:

Signing a Joint Declaration on the importance of adopting positive decisions at the forthcoming Council meetings, addressed to high–level EU officials: Donald Tusk, President of European Council, Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy / Vice-President of the Commission and to Johannes Hanh, European Commissioner for European Neighbourhood Policy and Enlargement Negotiations;

Raising awareness about the negative impact at the national and regional level in case of further delays in the accession process.

Defining ways as to how the Podgorica Club could further support:

1) The accession process of the Western Balkans;

2) The regional cooperation, as one of key preconditions on the enlargement agenda; and

3) The attainment of tangible deliverables within the framework of the Berlin Process/Implementation of MAP REA.

Format of Participation in the Conference

From North Macedonia:

-President of the Republic of North Macedonia as a speaker, senior officials and / or participant / speaker at one of the sessions (Prime Minister Zaev, Deputy Prime Minister Osmani, Minister of Foreign Affairs Dimitrov, Chief Technical Negotiator, Maricic)

- High-level Government officials as a key note speaker(s) and/or participant/speaker at the one of the sessions (Prime Minister Zaev, Deputy Prime Minister Osmani, MFA Dimitrov, Chief Technical Negotiator, Marichikj),

- Representatives of NGO(s) working on EU accession process related issues – the European Policy Institute (EPI), Skopje.

From the Region:

-Founding, including appointed members of the Podgorica Club,

- Ms. Majlinda Bregu, RCC Secretary General.

From the EU:

- Samuel Zbogar, Head of EU Delegation in North Macedonia,

- Ambassadors of EU Member States in North Macedonia,

- - Heads of EU Delegations in the WB,

- High-level key note speaker from the European Commission:

1. Christian Danielsson, EU Director-General for Neighbourhood and Enlargement Negotiations (DG NEAR), or

2. Genoveva Luiz Calavera, Director for Western Balkans at DG NEAR.